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One from two last out as Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down to defeat Nadal in 5 while Pegula lead by a set and double break point, and by a break in the decider, but couldn’t get over the line. It’s been an entertaining second half of the event with several big upsets and epic comebacks, most notably by Tsitsipas and Muchova, but who will make it through to the final? Join me as I analyze semi-final day 2 in Melbourne and offer my best value tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Friday, February 19, 2021 – 03:30 AM EST at Melbourne Park
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Djokovic dismantled Karatsev in the first semi-final, and now we have what should be a much more competitive affair as Medvedev takes on Tsitispas. These two are still relatively new to this level of the tour but they have already developed a notable rivalry – there was also a funny after-match ‘disagreement’ when they first met in Miami 2018.
Medvedev leads the H2H 5-1, but none of the matches have been remotely comfortable. With both in great form this week, I would expect more of the same. All but one of their H2H matches has gone over the total games line, so I like the look of over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline.
These two are both tall players at 6’ 6” and 6’ 4” with excellent serves and have held 89% and 91.2% over the last year on indoor and outdoor hard courts. As mentioned in my last article, Tsitsipas is superb for betting on long matches and once again he’s the main driving force for the over bet.
Tsitsipas is a player who does his best work on the front foot and often struggles to break down opponents’ defences. As a result, he is naturally more serve orientated which has historically lead to lots of long matches, especially against elite level opposition. When Tsitsipas has been priced at betting odds of +100 (2) to +200 (3) on indoor and outdoor hard, the over has lost in just 8 of 34 matches (24%). Against top 20 opposition in this price bracket, he has covered the over line in 8 of 11 matches.
Medvedev is less obviously good for this bet given his superior defensive capabilities and higher tennis IQ. On top of his natural power and strong serve, he is very difficult to hit through, which against weaker opposition, often leads to Medvedev being totally dominant.
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He has looked excellent on the whole this week with one notable wobble against Krajinovic where he let go of a 2-0 set lead, but he went on to win 6-0 in the fifth. Other than that, he has comfortably won every match in straight sets. The Russian is a rightful favorite to my mind based on raw stats, immediate form, and the H2H advantage. The major worry for the bet is that he may simply be too good on the day.
However, his dominance against weaker opposition doesn’t tend to translate to dominance in these closer matches against top opposition. As mentioned, the H2H has seen the over land in all but 1 of 6 matches, and more broadly when priced up between -200 (1.5) and -101 (1.99) against the top 30, the over has lost in 2 of 7 in since 2020, one of which was a 6-2 7-6 7-6 loss to Thiem at the US Open, where Medvedev served for both sets 2 and 3.
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After Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down against Nadal, I imagine he feels fortunate and grateful to have made the semis and can swing freely in this match, knowing that his best route to victory is to try to be on the front foot as much as possible and really take the battle to Medvedev.
I am expecting a high quality match in the next episode of this rivalry and while I would expect Medvedev to come through, I’m not keen on his price of -220 (1.45). For anyone who can bet on 3-1 to Medvedev, I like that at a price of +275 (3.75) and over, but I can’t officially tip that so I’ll take a chance on over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline.
Tennis Pick: Over 40.5 games at -108 (1.93) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.