Google Sheets Sports Betting Tracker. The sports betting tracker is also available on Google Sheets. While the features are the same as the Excel file, Google Sheets has some notable benefits: Available/online at all times; Can enter bets on your phone using the Sheets app; You don’t need to be at a computer to enter your bets. Now, here is where I think we should decide to do only spread betting and I think I'm going to make a formula that will output a rating of a team based on the four factors. Then I'll assume that the higher rated team should win (don't know by how much) and if my pick to win is the underdog on the spread and there aren't any major injuries on. It is good to know that sports betting make up about 13 percent of the global gambling market, which also includes lotteries, casinos, gaming machines, bingo and other gaming paraphernalia. Estimation puts the gross win of the global gambling industry at more than 400 billion U.S. Sports betting is not like some other speculative businesses, where you trust your money to someone and they will make money for you. In sports betting there are many obstacles, like limiting players from bookmakers and every single bettor is a single story. Then I decided, that I will start using my own statistics in sports betting. A really important type of data for building a rating model (or any kind of model for betting) is historical odds data. If you get your hands on it you could compare your model estimations with the market closing line, which would give you much better idea about the viability of your model.

It might come as a surprise to most to hear that some of the best sports handicappers on the planet rely on a particular 'betting system' more so than their knowledge of the sport or sports they bet on. Don't get me wrong, these handicappers are very smart people, but their consistent success is due to the fact they've been able to develop 'betting systems' throughout their years in the industry that they trust and rely on 100 percent of the time. These systems are complex and thorough and with the right tweak of data every now and then, the systems continuously churn out updated information for future betting situations.

What is a Betting System?

When you hear someone talking about a certain 'betting system' they are referring to a system that is in place that uses a specific set of rules or criteria to avoid making a subjective decision when thinking about a particular wager. Such betting systems are the product of extensive data mining in which numbers, statistics and trends are dug up to help a bettor find the most logical way to wager on future games with similar traits. To simplify, a handicapper would look for situations where X happened, and Y immediately followed. Going forward, if X were to happen again, a play on Y would be in order. There are 'betting systems' for things like blackjack, roulette, baccarat and horse betting. However, for the purpose of this article, I will stick to 'betting systems' within sports betting.

How Do Betting Systems Work?

There are countless types of 'betting systems' a handicapper can utilize when looking to gain an edge over the sportsbooks. Some are self developed while others have been around for several years. For example, some handicappers prefer to look for statistical reoccurrences, while some think studying a team's schedule could help them find situations in which a team is expected to play better or worse. There are also some handicappers who look for surprising line movement and then make their play on or against it. Whatever your system is, once the specific criteria is in place, you can quickly sort through a high volume of available games and identify the ones that fit the system. However, once you have circled the few games that fit the system, you must dig deeper to find out if there is value to be had and if it's worth wagering on.

How to Create a Betting System?

When most people think hear the term 'betting system' they instantly think it's beyond their paygrade and so sophisticated in stature. Sure, some sports betting system are created by math geniuses looking for value. And while these may be complex and fly directly over the head of an average bettor, these are generally the exception.

If you wanted to create your own betting system, the first step would be to identify what you want to target and then come up with an idea of how you are going to collect the data. The best sports betting systems all start with a single trend or statistic, and then it snowballs from there. To keep the system relevant, you must constantly build on it, tweak it and adjust it as time passes to keep from going stale and to continue turning a profit.

In the year 2019, we have more information available to us than we have ever had before, and the availability of real-time data and statistics allow us to instantly plug in the information and see how it fits. There is no waiting required as the excel sheets and the amount of computer power we possess have the ability to instantly crunch the numbers and spit out a conclusion that can then be turned into profit. Use the information available to you and do something positive with it. The information is available for everyone to consume, and building a betting system is a step on the right path when it comes to understanding the sports betting industry and helping you profit over time.

The Flaws of a Betting System

If sports betting was as easy as following trends and wagering on certain situations, we would all be super rich. Unfortunately it isn't, and each 'betting system' has its own flaw. Before I get to the flaws, I want to touch on how the sportsbooks react to these 'betting systems.' For starters, sportsbooks are not dumb. They employ knowledgeable sports people who are paid to track these sorts of things. If a sportsbook feels vulnerable to a specific trend, they will adjust the line or price and try to take the edge away from the bettor. This means that finding a true 'betting system' that provides a long-term edge for bettors is much tougher than most handicappers like to believe.

Over many years of handicapping, I have come to find that the biggest problem with 'betting systems' is sample size. For example, if you flip a coin 1,000 times the split between heads and tails should be pretty close to even - 500 per side. However, if you were to shrink the sample size to just 10 flips, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a more severe split - say 7/3 in favor of heads, or 8/2 in favor of tails. Because of this severe split, handicappers are quick to assume that seven or eight out of 10 is a reasonable expectation over the long term. Positive results like this lead to greed and cutting corners, not to mention false expectations. If you value your bankroll like most successful handicappers, you need to avoid putting any stock in betting systems that aren't proven over an extender period of time.

Betting System and Algorithm Success Addendum from Doc's Sports' Arun Shiva (formerly Indian Cowboy)

Check Shiva's handicapping info page here . It's not every day a Sports Handicapper has a Masters in Biostatistics, but that is something that has helped myself and my team over the years. When one speaks of algorithms, people have a tendency to get scared or intimidated. But it doesn't have to be that way. In a world filled with Metrics and Analytics, I think people can get a bit scared as the traditional way of how we look at sports gets taken away. People become uncomfortable with the idea that numbers are driving draft picks, the way we watch the game, or how we handicap a contest. I am a firm believer in both. It is like your Right Eye and your Left Eye. You need them both.

I believe Numbers and Algorithms are important in tracking what you are looking for. For us, it is bounce-backs for a team or pitcher, regressions of a team or pitcher, let downs, revenge, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, the all-important turnover/assist ratio, field goal percentage up tick or regression, and the list goes on. So, when you do algorithms, you have to base your algorithms on what YOU are looking for. Don't let the numbers tell you what to dictate. Find out what you want from the numbers. How well a team does after a win, a loss, a terrible turnover performance, a poor assist performance, or a terrible offensive or defensive performance. Have numbers be your Right Eye.

But, have gut instinct be your left eye. There is nothing better than gut instinct and knowing when a team just does not match up well against another team. Or, a team no matter what their record is for that year, always gets up for certain teams. So, Numbers + Gut Instinct is the best possible combination you can have. We hope this explains our obsession with Numbers and Gut Instinct.

Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc's Sports list of expert sports handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free .

How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.

What is a betting model?

In it's simplest form a sports betting model is a system that can identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes in a particular game.

The model will ultimately be able to highlight profitable betting opportunities, by judging a team's true ability more accurately than a bookmaker.

However, building a sports betting model can be difficult and time consuming. There are various instructions and orders advised for you to follow when creating a model, which can complicate the process.

With that said, once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.

Let's begin.

For this example we use an approach similar to the Actuarial Control Cycle – a quantitative risk assessment employed by insurance companies. There are five main features:

• Defining the problem
• Building the solution
• Monitoring results
• Professionalism
• External forces

Step 1: Specify the aim of your betting model

This appears simple, but many sports bettors miss the point their betting model is trying to accomplish.

Once you have created a successful betting model, it can show you opportunities that the general betting public simply wouldn't consider.

Without an aim you could be overwhelmed with numbers and lose focus of your overall goals.

How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel

Although you may argue you can get the data first to see if there are any patterns, this would still need to be tested against a number of hypothesis, each with a different aim.

Therefore starting with a specific, rather than a generic aim, is strongly recommended.

Step 2: Select the metric

The next step is to formalise your investigation into numerical form by selecting a quantifiable metric.

These first two steps relate to defining the problem stage of the Actuarial Control Cycle.

Step 3: Collect, group and modify data

Every model needs data so you can integrate it into your algorithm. There are two ways of collecting data – by yourself, or by using other published data online.

Luckily, there is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.

How To Build A Sports Betting Model Reddit

Once you have the data, you may realise that there are queries that need to be taken care of.

If we are looking at Premier League teams for instance, should you consider all matches or just their league games? It's possible to make adjustments if the team in question had players missing, or had a mid-week Champions’ League clash.

This is where you can exercise your judgement, determined by what your aim is.

Step 4: Choosing the form of your model

This is where the mathematics comes into play given there are so many models to choose from or invent.

There is a plethora of data available on the Internet, some of which is free, while some websites offer a paid service.

We have proposed a number of models in the past and they can be as complex or as simple as you wish. Our recommendation is not to overcomplicate.

This step can be interchanged with step 3 as the data may lead you to use a particular model, or a particular model may require specific data.

Step 5: Dealing with assumptions

Each model will have a number of assumptions, and you should be aware of their limitations. You may forget to do this, but it's absolutely vital.

For example a significant contributor to the financial crisis in 2007-08 was the misuse of derivatives caused by a misunderstanding of assumptions in contracts such as Collateralised Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps.

Previously in this article we highlighted how averages and standard deviations assume events are normally distributed. This for example would need be tested.

Step 6: Build the sports betting model

The next step is to actually build the sports betting model. There are numerous tools to use including online calculators, Excel, MatLab, Java, R programming and VBA.

You don’t have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.

Step 7: Test the model

You don’t have to be a wiz at programming to build a sports betting model, but the more you understand the functionality, the better equipped you will become when testing and analysing the data.

It's paramount that you test the efficiency of any sports betting model to understand how sensitive it is to the results.
In any case the results of the model may lead us to reconsider any of the previous steps.

The key question as always is whether or not the model is making a profit? Therefore you’d need to test that – leading you to running through the cycle again.

Step 8: Monitor results

Assuming that an adequate model has been built and tested, it needs to be maintained as time progresses. This leads us back to the starting point – defining future aims.

Applied knowledge

Understanding the processes involved is paramount when learning how to build a sports betting model.

Quantitative modelling isn’t just about taking a model and applying it, there are a number of processes – not necessarily in the order stated – which should be completed.

Following this process won't guarantee a profit-making model, but it will ensure you are considering the fundamental aspects that are needed to build a new sports betting model.

For an example of how to build a betting model, click here.

Dominic Cortis is a lecturer with the Department of Mathematics at The University of Leicester; and an assistant lecturer at The University of Malta. He is an associate actuary and his research focuses on sports analytics as well as financial and betting derivatives.