Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018
The 2018 Kentucky Derby is just days away, and the early analysis is rolling in. Experts from across the country are offering their picks and insights to inform betting strategies for a deep, 20.
April 11th 2017
After reviewing all the major Derby prep races to date and analyzing times and speed figures, two horses jumped off my spreadsheet as potential Kentucky Derby sleepers: Gunnevera and Hence. I like my Derby contenders to achieve two standards in their final prep race before the Derby: a sub 1:50 time in a 9 furlong race and a final 3 furlong fraction time of less than 38 seconds. Both Gunnevera and Hence achieved these standards and did so with flying colors.
Now I don’t see either of these two as a huge threat to win the 143rd Run for the Roses. However, with a Derby trail season that has been marked with inconsistency and the race favorite getting beat often, this seems to be a year where anything can happen. A “Mine That Bird” sort of year.
- 2017 Kentucky Derby Sleeper Picks and Predictions Girvin. This colt is coming in with serious momentum from a pair of Grade 2 victories at the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, which also placed him atop of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 152 points.
- Bet on the 2018 Kentucky Derby here! Kentucky derby Sleepers Good Magic: Currently +900 at Bovada, this guy won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall as a maiden, but horseplayers jumped off his bandwagon after a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his three-year-old debut.
- The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track.
I expect Gunnevera and Hence will both be flying a bit under the radar on Derby Day. If nothing else, these two horses should be given strong consideration for rounding out your superfecta bets. Here is why.
With Gunnevera, the Antonio Sano trained colt disappointed in the Florida Derby (shown below) with a third place finish.
This disappointing finish will scare off a lot of bettors. However, after reviewing the race and his final 3 furlong time, I like his chances of finishing in the money on Derby Day. I estimated that Gunnevera ran the final 3 furlongs in 36.32 seconds, faster than Always Dreaming’s final 3 furlong time and the fastest any horse has run in their final prep race to date.
Gunnevera has a closer race style and he simply got too far behind to have a shot at beating Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby. This can be corrected much like jockey Keith Desormeaux had to do with Exaggerator last year. If you remember, Desormeaux made the adjustment and began to press Exaggerator up to mid-pack sooner to get him within shouting distance of the race leader.
With an additional furlong like Gunnevera will enjoy in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby, he should be more of a factor at the end. A stalking race style like Always Dreaming employs traditionally has better success rate in the Derby. However, a few closers do win on occasion. I like putting a closer or two in my superfecta bets because the pace and additional furlong sometimes tires out a few on the lead pack and makes them easy prey to be picked off for position down the stretch. Last year, Exaggerator used this same closing race style strategy to get a second place finish behind Nyquist.
Gunnevera – expected morning line Kentucky Derby odds 15/1
Career: 7 Starts 3-1-1-1
Last 3 starts: 2nd–>1st–>3rd
Sire:Dialed In (Finished 8th in 2011 Kentucky Derby)
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.51 (estimated) – 2017 Florida Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 97 – 2017 Fountain of Youth Stakes
I am sure that my inclusion of the Steve Asmussen-trained Hence will raise some eyebrows here. Hence’s Sunland Derby win (shown below) didn’t generate a whole lot of ink when it happened. However, his 1:48.10 time is the second fastest 9 furlong time of this class behind Always Dreamings’ 1:47.47 in the Florida Derby. I estimated Hence’s final 3 furlong fraction time in the Sunland Derby at 37.62, the third fastest behind Always Dreaming (36.56) and Gunnevera’s (36.32) in the Florida Derby.
Yes, Sunland Park is a notoriously fast track. But remember what 2015 Sunland Derby winner Firing Line did that year in the Kentucky Derby–a second place finish behind American Pharoah and ahead of highly touted Dortmund.
Working a bit against Hence is the fact that his sire Street Boss was a sprinter. If a generation is skipped, Street Boss’s sire (Hence’s grandsire) was Street Cry who won the 2002 Dubai World Cup.
Steve Asmussen is a great trainer who does more with less. He is very good at developing a colt and bringing them along slowly. Just see the development of Gun Runner over his 3-year-old season and into his 4-year-old campaign. Gun Runner really didn’t produce eye-popping times or speed figures during his Derby prep season but he won and ended up finishing third in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Gun Runner has been an extremely consistent throughout his race career and is now is arguably the best colt in training behind Arrogate due to his consistency.
Hence– expected morning line Kentucky Derby odds 20/1
Career: 6 Starts 2-1-1-0Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0
Last 3 starts: 1st–>7th–>1st
Sire:Street Boss
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Fastest 1 1/8th Mile Time: 1:48.10 – 2017 Sunland Derby
Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 93 – 2017 Sunland Derby
On the docket…
My next blog will preview the Arkansas Derby which is scheduled for Saturday April 15th. I will have this out by Friday morning.
–Michael
In the short memoir “The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved,” Hunter S. Thompson uses misdirection and deception to make readers think he’s confused by the proceedings at the Derby. He only reveals later that he has successfully covered the Louisville gala in the past and was just playing dumb to most of the natives.
No doubt much of the mayhem Thompson described is still taking place. But the prevalence of legal racebooks and horse racing betting sites has helped to calm some of the crush of Kentucky revelers in April and May. People will always go to the Derby, but you no longer have to walk 5 feet to wager on the Run for the Roses or even to watch it in HD.
There remain plenty of 50-1 and 100-1 sleepers on betting boards – but not all betting boards. With Derby-qualifying sweepstakes underway, Bovada and other giants of online Thoroughbred gambling are posting scant futures odds including 20 or less horses.
It feels like handicappers expect a lot of solid animals racing their way into the field at the expense of lesser lights.
The Derby itself offers some novel ways to wager, and the race’s official website is a nice tool for sorting through the biggest-payoff hopefuls who could still potentially run at Churchill Downs. But ultimately there is only a single horse whose wagers to-win are going to pay off in the end…and that’s the winner. Eyes are focused on colts that have a real shot – with proven trainers getting shorter odds overall.
Scroll for a look at some odds-on favorites at Bovada Sportsbook’s “Horse Futures & Props” section (available by tapping “All Sports” on the right of the top banner).
But first, a look back to 2018.
When the Hype is Justified
What a historic year for horse racing it was! Tiger Roll winning the Grand National despite an age differential that warded-off heavy futures action, proving that the old canards about 8 y/o vs 9 y/o may be bunk after all. Social media sensations like #GoWinx and various campaigns around American horses.
Of course, it all pales in comparison to what happened on 3 flat tracks in late spring. Justify won the Triple Crown and retired undefeated, becoming on the 2nd Thoroughbred to march into Louisville, Baltimore and New York and protect a perfect record at all 3 venues. Justify didn’t race as a 2-year-old which leaves us without a lot of potential evidence as to whether he belongs in the conversation as one of the most dominant colts ever. For a brief time he was impeccable.
The reason Justify didn’t race as an adolescent was most likely that he was temperamental. American Pharaoh was a lovely and kind animal, adding a touch of humor to the 2018 race as Bob Baffert cared for both Thoroughbreds. Triple Crown winners come friendly and they come surly too.
Last year’s Greatest Two Minutes in Sports was also one of the rainiest 2:00, and the rain would get worse as the Triple Crown progressed into Maryland. But Justify glided over the mud with his front-running style and pulled away from a busy crowd of contenders down the stretch.
Justify’s line shrank to (+300) by the afternoon of his Kentucky Derby appearance. Those gamblers who found the horse and handicapped it to win early in the year made out a lot better in the end.
Can we “justify” a futures wager on any of the 2019 favorites in January or February? Here’s some of the current leaders of the pack in Kentucky Derby qualifying, with my recommendations and leans attached.
Game Winner (+800)
Surprise! Another Baffert-trained colt tore through the competition as a 2-year-old by going undefeated in 4 starts. Wins at the American Pharaoh Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have Game Winner tabbed as the early futures-betting favorite for the Derby.
The colt secured his best Equibase speed figure of 107 at American Pharaoh’s namesake race, cruising to a 4+ length victory. But what sets the horse apart is his dynamic skill-set.
Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018 Draft
Great feats in racing are often a matter of solving the unsolvable, for instance how does a runner get out to a lead in the 100-yard dash while conserving energy for the final lunge? Usain Bolt appears to accelerate and blow past the field on his way to Olympic gold, but Bolt has actually found a way to slow down far less than the competition does. All sprinters slow down gradually but he does it so gradually as to be imperceptible. The other runners are flagging while Usain speeds along.
Horses are often touted as fast starters or great finishing sprinters. Would it increase the odds of a winner if gamblers found a horse that can be relied upon out of the gate and in the stretch? Heck yeah.
Game Winner has impressed with blistering speeds out of the gate, but the Thoroughbred also has the mental fortitude and burst of pure power to come from 4-5 lengths behind. Check out this amazing clip of the colt getting almost lost in the pack before exploding down the stretch to win easily.
It’s notable that the Sentient Jet race happened at Churchill Downs, an arduous race track on which some horses start reasonably well then fall prey to fatigue and packed muscle. The dynamic Game Winner could have a natural advantage on most of the field with the ability to win any type of race.
Game Winner’s sire Candy Ride already had a Juvenile champion to his credit when the races began this cycle.
Meanwhile, Bob Baffert could become a Triple Crown winner for the 3rd time in 5 years if the horse pans out. Gosh.
Improbable (+1000)
How fitting that the next colt would be named “Improbable.” But guess what? Baffert owns this fellow too. The 3-year old colt is coming off a blistering 2018 performance that included a win at Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Improbable also wowed spectators by a dominating victory of 7+-lengths at the Street Sense Stakes. Resiliency has been his calling card – the Thoroughbred is not the best starter but clocked 108 in one thrilling charge around the turn.
Jockey Drayden Van Dyke has guided Improbable to his first 3 victories and earned his maiden Breeders’ Cup race win and Del Mar riding title in ’18.
Still, the phrase “Van Dyke vs Goliath” comes to mind when you consider the more highly-touted animal in Improbable’s way. Van Dyke’s best shot against Game Winner might be to hide in the pack and conserve energy, hoping that Game Winner is comfortably ahead and has no reason to turn on the afterburners until it’s too late.
Gunmetal Gray (+2000)
Gunmetal Gray is currently fresh off a signature performance, winning the Sham Stakes Grade 3 to begin 2019. After an impressive 2nd-place finish at the American Pharaoh Stakes, the colt struggled to a 5th-place finish at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His Equibase speed figure dropped from 100 down to 82.
Like a poor man’s version of Improbable, the Thoroughbred has closing speed but few other consistent good habits. But his jockey is Mike Smith, who rode Justify to the Triple Crown. That counts for something.
Rowayton (+2000)
Rowayton is coming off a 3rd-place finish at American Pharaoh Stakes behind Game Winner and Gunmetal Gray. A string of impressive performances saw the colt record a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. The colt has blasted out of the gate at blazing speeds, but maintaining those high speeds on a longer track will be a question mark going forward.
Again – Churchill Downs is an arduous track and the Derby is a difficult race. I don’t expect this colt’s odds to shorten, but I’ve been a liar before.
Signalman (+2500)
Trained by Kenneth G. McPeek, Signalman is riding high after a stellar victory at the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Signalman finished well on a muddy 1 and 1/16th-mile track and finished at 1.45.29. In Grade 1 action, the colt also finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Futurity and 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, his best Equibase Speed Figure is 97.
Coliseum (+2500)
A 3rd potential Bob Baffert entry, Coliseum caught the attention of many with his debut win at Del Mar in November. The colt was impressive, to the tune of winning the race by 6 ¾ lengths. Coliseum could not ride the momentum into his maiden race of 2019, however, finishing in 6th place at the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. A slow start coupled with a wide-run race was simply much to overcome.
Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018 Fantasy
According to Baffert Coliseum “wanted to be too aggressive,” but the horse has shown enough maturity in training that we can look for more consistency soon. Trainers always say that…even the unique Baffert.
Knicks Go (+3300)
Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018 Week
My favorite semi-sleeper on the Bovada board is Knicks Go, who surged into Kentucky Derby discussions with his victory at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and of course (in a more negative sense) after merely showing in the head-to-head stretch run with Game Winner. But the horse’s pedigree includes having been sired by Paynter, a brave horse who could win from the pack. That’s a good sign, since it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more tight squeezes and surprises on the Derby track this May.