Saints Cowboys Score Prediction
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The New Orleans Saints’ season could end in just a few days. That’s what’s at stake in their Divisional Round game: single-loss elimination. It just adds more pressure onto them to take care of business against a familiar opponent in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bucs quarterback Tom Brady has never been beaten three times in a single season, a fact that’s been all the rage in the discourse surrounding this matchup. But Brady had never been beaten twice in a single season before the Saints did it, so don’t let that weigh too heavily on your mind. Besides, three-game sweeps are more common than the narratives might suggest.
Anyway: let’s dive into the matchup and take a shot at maybe our final score prediction of the year.
Saints' keys to success
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
- Cowboys stifle Brees, end Saints' 10-game win streak, 13-10. Ezekiel Elliott scored the only Dallas touchdown and the Cowboys stifled Drew Brees and the Saints, ending New Orleans' 10-game winning.
- Saints prediction The Cowboys have too much firepower to finish drives with touchdowns, and then have Ezekiel Elliott play closer in the running game. The Saints won't be able to.
View the DALLAS COWBOYS vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS game played on September 29, 2019. Box score, stats, odds, highlights, play-by-play, social & more.
Will Trey Hendrickson be cleared to play? His neck injury has slowed him down for a few weeks now, but he’s been practicing on a limited basis, so he should at least be questionable for Sunday; we’ll know for certain once the Friday injury report rolls out. But getting him back would be huge. Pro Football Focus credited him with 10 pressures in two games with Tampa Bay this year (including three sacks), and he’s outright taken over drives at times with constant pressure off Brady’s blind side. If he can’t play, it means the Saints will have to manufacture pressure with blitzes and mismatches, like lining David Onyemata and Cameron Jordan up against weak links in the Buccaneers line. Which, to be fair, they should be doing anyway.
On offense, New Orleans should continue to enjoy the mismatches they’ve found against the Buccaneers defense. They’ve targeted linebacker Devin White in the run game, where he’s logged half of his missed tackles on the year in two games with the Saints. Alvin Kamara makes everyone look bad, but he’s a tough matchup for White specifically. Look for the Saints to go after him again on Sunday. In the passing game, it’s best that they avoid Carlton Davis altogether after his strong Week 1 game with Michael Thomas. The rest of the Bucs secondary is vulnerable enough to where trying to win that one-on-one matchup isn’t worth the hassle.
Saints' biggest concerns
AP Photo/Jason Behnken
Can the protection hold up? New Orleans should match up well with the Buccaneers edge rushers, but Ndamukong Suh can win inside much like Akiem Hicks did a week ago against rookie guard Cesar Ruiz. And Tampa Bay should try to dial up more blitzes than in the past to avoid letting their linebackers be picked on in coverage. The interior trio of Ruiz, Erik McCoy, and Andrus Peat must be on top of their game while tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk focus on corralling Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul.
On defense, the Saints secondary must compete against every pass. Brady has been on fire since they last saw him, benefiting hugely from the addition of receiver Antonio Brown (who has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his last four games). While Brown hasn’t put up huge receiving numbers himself, the attention he commands from defenders has freed up opportunities for teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa’s run game is the weakest among teams left in the playoffs — averaging just 94.9 rushing yards per game — so it’s vital for the Saints defense to take that element away quickly and force Brady to step up in the face of their pass rush.
Final score prediction
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calls a different game than he has in four previous meetings with the Saints and successfully pressures Brees into making too many mistakes. Maybe Bruce Arians takes a different approach on offense and gives Brady more options underneath the New Orleans coverage rather than hoping for the home-run opportunities that just aren’t there.
At this point in the rivalry, the sample size is too broad to ignore. The Saints offense has scored 30.8 points per game since Arians and Bowles were hired (not including a couple of defensive touchdown returns), while allowing just 16.7 points per game on defense against Tampa Bay. It’s possible the vaunted postseason version of Brady finally appears, but this one shouldn’t be close now that the Saints have all of their weapons back.
Final score: Saints 34, Bucs 24
Dallas Cowboys (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday September 29th, 2019. 8:20PM (EST)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, L.A.
TV: NBC
Point Spread:DAL -3/NO +3 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under Total: 45.5
When QB Drew Brees went down last week with a thumb injury that would cause him to miss several weeks, the Saints were simply trying to find a way to stay afloat. Then on Sunday backup QB Teddy Bridgewater delivered in his 1st start of the season to lead the Saints to a 33-27 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The win vaulted the Saints back into the lead of the struggling NFC South, and even without Brees the Saints still look like the best team in their division. This week the Saints get another opportunity to prove they will survive in Brees absence when they host the Dallas Cowboys inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for Sunday Night Football.
The visiting Cowboys enter New Orleans this week in a predictable fade spot in a tough road match-up inside the Superdome in the primetime spotlight. While many would point to an easy schedule that has parted the way towards the Cowboys 3-0 SU record, America’s team is still emerging as a frontrunner in the NFC. The play on both sides of the ball has been thoroughly impressive despite the competition. Again I understand going into the Superdome in a primetime game is not ideal but I believe oddsmakers are overvaluing circumstantial angles against the better football team. As a result, I think bettors should be salivating at the -3 point line favoring Dallas this Sunday!
Cowboys offense firing on all cylinders
The Cowboys made it through the first three weeks with victories and covers against the number while bringing star running back Ezekiel Elliott up to game speed following his hold out. After three weeks, the reigns have been pulled off Elliott who rushed for his 2nd straight 100-yard performance in the win last week against Miami. Elliott finished with 19 rushes for 125 yards despite failing to cross the end zone. While the Cowboys prized star returns to normal, everyone has overlooked the outstanding job that QB Dak Prescott has done to start the season. Prescott is arguably playing the best football of his career. Through 3 games, Prescott is averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air and has thrown for nine touchdowns with just two interceptions. Prescott currently leads the NFL in QB rating and is benefitting greatly from Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore’s new offense. Overall, this is just a tough offense to defend, and they are going to give the Saints trouble this Sunday.
Saints offense vs. Cowboys defense
If you are a Saints’ fan, there is a reason to be hopeful this Sunday. In all honesty, the Saints have the talent on offense to attack this tough Cowboys defense. WR Michael Thomas, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Jared Cook provide a plethora of talent at the skill positions. All with the tremendous speed that can frustrate the best of defenses. My primary concern for this side of the ball is the Saints ability to get their playmakers the ball. Head Coach Sean Payton did a great job of drawing up short-yardage plays to get the ball to their playmakers in space last week. Running back Alvin Kamara was a complete nightmare to the Seahawks defense running for 69 yards with a touchdown and catching nine passes for another 92 yards with an additional touchdown.
If you are Payton, the game plan will be similar this week. Bridgewater has to get his guys, specifically Kamara and Thomas, the ball in space. My skepticism is that the Seattle back seven compared to the Cowboys back 7 is literally night and day difference. Specifically, the Cowboys have one of the best linebacking groups in the league with Jaylon Smith, Sean Lee, and Leighton Vander-Esch. These linebackers are extremely smart and athletic, which should prevent things from being easy over the middle. I believe these linebackers will be the biggest difference this week and prevent Kamara from duplicating his week three numbers and keeping this Saints offense alive. From there, it’s up to Bridgewater to carry the torch, and I don’t believe this is the best match-up for him.
Cowboys vs. Saints betting trends
Cowboys Vs Saints 2019 Score Prediction
The Cowboys are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games but are just 1-7 ATS in their previous eight road trips to New Orleans. The Cowboys have hit the ‘over’ in their past five games against NFC opponents. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. The Saints are also 0-5 ATS in their previous five games at home. New Orleans has hit the ‘under’ in 8 of their last ten games, but 4 of the past six meetings against the Cowboys have found the ‘over’.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Dallas -3
Saints Cowboys Score Predictions
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